Treetop General presents its lumber market report for Monday August 31, 2026. The week opens with a genuine escalation: Canada has announced counter-tariffs on US goods — including lumber — answering Washington’s 50% tariffs on Canadian wood products. Prime Minister Carney says he remains open to negotiation but will not accept a “subordinate position.” Futures bounced 1.1% Friday to $565.54/mbf off five-month lows near $560; the cash market kept falling, with Madison’s index at $521 (-2% w/w, -7% m/m). Here is what a declared trade war means for wood buyers.
The new picture: Until Friday, this was a demand story — housing starts down 12.4%, prices sliding from July’s $640+ four-year high, mills negotiable. That buyer’s window remains open: futures near $565 and cash at $521 are genuinely cheap against the summer. But counter-tariffs add a supply-side fuse. Tariff walls on both sides of the border distort flows in both directions, more than 20 British Columbia sawmills have already closed since 2023, and Friday’s bounce on the announcement shows how fast tariff headlines can reprice the board upward. The one-way bet (“wait, it falls further”) has become a two-way market.
Buyer’s guidance, updated: Lock tranches, not lump sums — cover 40–50% of autumn needs at current levels, stage the rest against either a deeper demand slide or a tariff-driven spike. Date and price your contracts explicitly; open-priced orders are where trade-war risk hides. Keep quoting plywood separately (+11% on the quarter, still counter-trend). Hardwood remains steady value (White Oak sawlogs $370–$900/MBF, Black Walnut $500–$1,500). And watch two tapes: Ottawa-Washington headlines, and Friday’s US jobs report, which will steer housing-demand sentiment.
The trade view: Producers were already betting on firmer prices into 2027 on shrinking capacity; a two-sided tariff war strengthens that case even as near-term demand stays weak. Today’s cheap wood and next year’s tight wood can both be true — which is precisely why the window matters now.
Treetop’s counsel: Buy the weakness deliberately, in dated tranches, before politics does the buying for you. Contact Treetop General for graded stock, mixed containers, and project supply at today’s prices.
