Treetop General presents its lumber market report for Wednesday September 9, 2026. Our thoughts are with those affected across the region’s waters. The lumber picture itself is unchanged and still favourable — futures in the five-month-low zone around $560–570 per thousand board feet, Madison’s cash index at $521 — but with Brent crossing $100 overnight, the delivered cost of wood into our region is being rewritten by the sea, not the sawmill. Here is the read.
The board price — still a buyer’s window: Weak US housing (starts -12.4%), the late-season lull, and unresolved US-Canada trade hostilities (Canadian counter-tariffs against Washington’s 50% duties; 20+ British Columbia mills closed since 2023) keep framing lumber genuinely cheap versus July’s $640+ high. Producers continue positioning for firmer 2027 prices on shrunken capacity. Friday’s US inflation report and next week’s Fed decision will shape how quickly housing demand can recover — a cool print improves sentiment quickly.
The freight price — now the swing factor: Brent above $100 (up 19% in a month), Hormuz transits down to four to six vessels a day, IRGC warnings of imminent attacks on tankers near Bahrain and Kuwait, and a planned exclusion zone outside the strait mean bunker costs, charter rates, and war-risk premiums are all repricing. Practical guidance: quote and contract landed, never FOB; shorten validity windows; specify war-risk insurance allocation explicitly; add route-substitution and force-majeure language; and budget a fuel-surcharge contingency into every Q4 project cost. A $20 saving per thousand board feet at the mill is easily erased by an unbudgeted freight increase.
Buyer’s guidance, consolidated: Continue lifting autumn coverage toward 60% at current board levels in dated, fixed-price tranches; stage the balance against Friday’s US inflation print. Quote plywood separately (+11% q/q, counter-trend). Hardwood steady: White Oak sawlogs $370–$900/MBF, Black Walnut $500–$1,500. Review every open order today for insurance cover and delivery buffers.
The trade view: The rare combination on offer — historically soft board prices with historically expensive freight — rewards the buyer who separates the two decisions. Lock the commodity now; manage the logistics actively and contractually.
Treetop’s counsel: Buy the price, budget the freight, paper everything. Contact Treetop General for graded stock, mixed containers, and project supply — with landed, war-risk-inclusive quotations on request.
