Monday, 19 October 2026 — cheaper oil is good news, but freight costs move slowly.
The key news: Brent crude slipped from last week’s $110 high to near $108 after the US eased restrictions on Russian oil. But the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most unescorted ships. Two supertankers hit mines on Sunday. A major container line says that, even after a reopening, normal networks would take about six weeks to return.
What it means for timber and panel buyers: Fuel surcharges may soften slowly, but war-risk premiums and route changes will keep Gulf freight high for weeks.
Example (illustrative): On a container of panels worth $18,000, a freight and risk surcharge of $1,500 adds about 8.3% to landed cost. Both figures are illustrative; ask your forwarder for live quotes.
Advice for buyers: Ask for quotes that separate base freight, fuel surcharge and war-risk charges, so you can see what falls first. Consider routing through ports outside the strait where your forwarder confirms it works.
The honest caution: One day’s oil drop does not end the shipping risk. New attacks could push costs up again quickly.
Treetop General — wood and panels, delivered with care.
