Trade update for 23 October 2026: the US housing market, the world’s biggest driver of softwood and panel demand, slowed again in September.
The key news: US housing starts fell 5.2% to an annual rate of 1.221 million. Single-family starts dropped 4.6% to 859,000. The average 30-year mortgage rate is near 7.4%, and US builder confidence is at a 14-year low. CME lumber futures are near $521 per thousand board feet, down about 13% from a year ago.
What it means for Treetop-General.com customers: when US builders slow down, mills and panel producers look harder for export buyers. That can bring more competitive offers on construction timber, plywood and OSB for Gulf and regional projects.
Example (illustrative): a project needing 40 thousand board feet of framing timber would cost about $20,860 at today’s futures price, compared with roughly $23,980 a year ago at a price 13% higher. That is a saving of around $3,100 on the wood alone, before freight.
Advice for partners: use this window to lock prices for confirmed projects, ask for mixed timber-and-panel loads to fill containers efficiently, and confirm grades in writing.
The honest caution: futures prices are a US benchmark, not a delivered Gulf price. Freight and insurance are higher this month, and timber prices can recover if US rates fall.
Treetop-General.com — timber and panels, traded with clarity.
