Treetop General presents its lumber market report for Monday September 7, 2026. North American trading paused for the US holiday, leaving the complex where Friday left it: futures in the five-month-low zone around $560–570 per thousand board feet, Madison’s cash index at $521. But for buyers importing into our region, the week’s real development came from the sea, not the sawmill. Here is the read.
The board price: Unchanged and still favourable. Weak US housing (starts -12.4%) and the late-season lull keep framing lumber genuinely cheap versus July’s $640+ high, and mills remain negotiable. The trade war is unresolved — Canadian counter-tariffs stand against Washington’s 50% duties, 20+ British Columbia mills have closed since 2023, and producers position openly for firmer 2027 prices. Friday’s US jobs surge (+162,000) hints that demand’s winter may have a spring; this week’s US inflation report and the September 16 Fed decision will set how quickly housing can respond.
The freight price — this week’s variable: Over the weekend the US and Iran exchanged strikes on shipping, and crude touched a near three-month high. For anyone routing cargo through or near Gulf waters, war-risk insurance premiums and charter rates can now move faster than lumber futures do. A buyer who negotiates $15 per thousand board feet off the mill price and then absorbs an unbudgeted freight and insurance increase has lost the negotiation. The discipline this week: quote and contract landed, not FOB; specify war-risk cover allocation explicitly; add buffer days; and put hard validity windows on every quotation.
Buyer’s guidance, consolidated: Continue lifting autumn coverage toward 60% at current board levels in dated, fixed-price tranches. Stage the balance against this week’s US inflation print — a cool number improves housing sentiment and firms mills quickly; a hot number may allow one more soft leg. Quote plywood separately (+11% q/q, counter-trend). Hardwood steady: White Oak sawlogs $370–$900/MBF, Black Walnut $500–$1,500.
The trade view: Cheap wood today, tight wood into 2027, and a sea lane that has become the swing cost between them. The buyer who handles all three wins this quarter.
Treetop’s counsel: Lock the board price, paper the freight, and keep coverage moving. Contact Treetop General for graded stock, mixed containers, and project supply — with landed, war-risk-inclusive quotations on request.
